Experts have long suspected that human lifespan has reached its limit, and no one can beat the record set by Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment, who reportedly died in 1997 at the age of 122.
But the new study concludes that we are still “far” from any upper lifespan limit, if there really is one.
In an article published Wednesday in the journal PLOS One, David McCarthy, professor of risk management at the University of Georgia, estimated that over the next few decades we could see people, especially women, over the age of 122.
In Japan, for example, mathematical calculations show that women born in 1940 can reach a maximum age of between 125 and 130 years. In the United States, the maximum age can be between 120 and 125, which means that today’s octogenarian could be alive in 2065.
Taken together, McCarthy says, these mathematical models show that our maximum lifespan is not biologically fixed, but rather increasing, at least for the time being.
The University of Georgia team analyzed the ages of people in the UK born after 1880 to see what might happen in the future.
Their projections show that men born in 1970 could reach 141 and older women born in 1970 could reach 131.
The authors say they “do not trust” these estimates, warning that they may be inaccurate because they are based on certain statistical assumptions.
They are more than confident that a man born in 1940 can live to his 125th birthday, and a woman born in the same year can live to 124.5 years.
These estimates have a 50% chance of being correct.
The oldest person in the world by far is believed to be Madame Calment, who is reportedly 122 years and 164 days old, though some experts doubt this.
25 years ago no one in the world reached that age.
The study looks at life expectancy in 19 selected countries. The results show that the age at which people die will increase dramatically in the coming decades.
In Sweden, where the most data is collected, the maximum age a person can live remained the same for men born in 1900 compared to those born in 1780, four generations earlier.
But the advent of modern medicine after World War II, improved nutrition, and political stability, among other factors, may have contributed to the dramatic increase in life expectancy seen so far, and is expected to continue to do so.
The authors say that the oldest among people born between 1910 and 1950 can live up to 120 years or more.
Dr. David McCarthy, who led the study from the University of Georgia, said: “As these groups reach advanced age in the coming decades, lifespan records could increase exponentially. Our findings support previous work suggesting that if there is the upper limit of human lifespan, we haven’t come close after it.”
Source: Daily Mail
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