In November 2022, there were 8 billion people in the world, but a new analysis shows that the world population could reach 9 billion by 2050 and then start to decline.
New study expected Earth4All, with the support of the Club of Rome (a non-governmental non-profit think tank in Zurich, Switzerland, which includes economists, scientists and politicians from different countries with a common interest in global issues such as overpopulation and global warming), according to current trends, the world’s population will reach 8.8 billion people to the middle of the horn, and then rapidly decline. The peak may come sooner if governments take consistent steps to raise average income and education levels.
The new forecasts are good news for the global environment. Once demographic inflation is overcome, the pressures on nature and climate, and the associated social and political tensions, should begin to ease.
But experts warn that declining birth rates alone will not solve the planet’s environmental problems, which are already serious at the level of 8 billion people.
A shrinking population could also create new challenges, such as a shrinking workforce and increased health care burdens associated with an aging society, as countries such as Japan and South Korea have discovered.
One of the report’s authors, Ben Caligari, said the results are encouraging, but there’s a catch. He added: “This gives us proof of faith that the population bomb will not go off, but we still face big challenges from an environmental point of view. We need a lot of effort to solve the current pattern of development of overconsumption and overproduction, which are more serious problems. than the problem of population.
Previous research has painted a bleaker picture. Last year, the United Nations estimated that the world’s population would reach 9.7 billion by mid-century and continue to rise for decades after that.
The new forecast, released on Monday, was prepared by Earth4All with contributions from environmental researchers and leading economic institutions, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Sustainability Center and BI Norwegian Business School. They were commissioned by the Club of Rome to continue studying the limits of growth over 50 years ago.
The report is based on a new methodology that incorporates social and economic factors that have a proven impact on fertility, such as improved education, especially for women, and higher incomes. He draws two scenarios depending on the extent to which this policy is implemented.
In business as usual, current policies are expected to be enough to limit world population growth to less than 9 billion in 2046 and then to 7.3 billion in 2100.
With investments in fight against poverty and policy turns on food and energy security, inequality and gender equality, global population may fall to six billion by the end of this century, write to Beniamino Callegari and @estoknes@Earth4All_. https://t.co/wlOKJfCpKs
— Project Syndicate (@ProSyn) March 28, 2023
To reach this conclusion, they considered two scenarios: in the first, called “too late”, the world continues its economic development in the same way as it has been for the past 50 years, and many countries manage to climb out of extreme poverty. Against this backdrop, researchers estimate that the world’s population could peak at 8.6 billion in 2050 and then fall to 7 billion in 2100.
The second model, called the Giant Leap, assumes that by 2040 the population will reach 8.5 billion people, and from then on, by the end of the century, it will decrease to almost 6 billion.
This requires “unprecedented investment” to fight poverty, especially in education and health, as well as necessary policy changes in food security, energy and gender inequality. Thus, by 2060 it will be possible to eliminate extreme poverty, which will affect global demographic trends.
Source: Guardian
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